![]() Rejection rates accelerate their downward spiralĮarlier in the month, it was newsworthy that OTRI finally broke below the 5% threshold after spending months between 5% and 6%. As with VOTVI, ROTVI is down a staggering 29.23% y/y, though accepted reefer volumes are actually up 4.76% y/y. Accordingly, the Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index (ROTVI) was up 5.7% w/w. Yet when it comes to refrigerated goods (such as produce), Lakeland is among the top markets by outbound volume. Florida, with good reason, is mainly known for its backhaul markets: An aged population and a small manufacturing base mark the state as a consumer. Reefer volumes were up 1.57% w/w in the heavyweight reefer market of Lakeland, Florida, coming down from a 24.3% w/w gain last week. Accepted van volumes are nevertheless down 11.69% y/y. Though VOTVI was down 25.6% y/y, the bulk of this difference stems from rapidly declining tender rejections over that same period. The Van Outbound Tender Volume Index (VOTVI) was up 0.55% w/w, largely due to peak season activity for consumer packaged goods. Ontario volumes contracted slightly this week, falling 0.96% w/w.īy mode: After weeks of consecutive decline, both dry vans and reefers are seeing upticks in volume, with reefers being a major driver behind w/w gains in the overall OTVI. This gain might have cannibalized volumes from the neighboring market of Ontario, California, which usually routes import volumes from the ports of LA and Long Beach to the rest of the country. The geographically small market of Los Angeles saw freight demand leap 63.6% w/w, climbing to be the largest market by outbound tender volume. Many of the larger markets posted healthy gains in volume this week. Of the 135 total markets, 76 reported weekly increases in tender volume as freight demand hit regions with inconsistency. ![]() SONAR: Outbound Tender Volume Index – Two-Week Change (OTVIF). Volumes rise in some heavyweight markets this week: In short, the bulk of freight demand - or such as remains - will be from coastal warehouses looking to move their goods farther inland. Even the aforementioned Port Houston, which just posted its second-busiest month in September, saw a monthly decline of 7.66% in handled volume. Georgia’s Port of Savannah, which rose to increased prominence during the pandemic, saw volumes decline in September by 23% from the previous month. While it is certainly true that part of Los Angeles’ troubles can be attributed to other, smaller ports ( like Port Houston) gaining market share, it is also true that import volumes are lowering across the board. Customs data from SONAR indeed shows that the Port of LA’s volumes are, at the time of writing, weaker in October than September. ![]() Nor is a flood of demand on the horizon, as Port of LA Executive Director Gene Seroka predicted that volumes in October would “probably be about the same or a little lighter. These softening imports are doubly concerning because September is supposed to be a robust month for volume, as shippers get their holiday goods from overseas. While I have stated that comparisons to 2019 were unfavorable, comparisons to 2009 - when markets were plagued by the Great Recession - are downright alarming. Truckload markets suffered another blow last week, when the Port of Los Angeles announced its lowest level of import volume since 2009. This y/y difference confirms that actual cracks in freight demand - and not merely OTRI’s y/y decline - are driving OTVI lower. Looking at accepted tender volumes, we see a slight rise of 0.99% w/w but also a fall of 11.47% y/y. In short, it is similar to OTVI but without the rejected tenders. SONAR: CLAV.USA: 2022 (white), 2021 (green) and 2020 (orange)Ĭontract Load Accepted Volume (CLAV) is an index that measures accepted load volumes moving under contracted agreements. Accepted volumes are well below 2020 levels: OTVI, which includes both accepted and rejected tenders, can be artificially inflated by an uptick in the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI). On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, OTVI is down 25.76%, although y/y comparisons can be colored by significant movements in tender rejections. This week, OTVI rose 0.95% on a week-over-week (w/w) basis. To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.
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